Defections and Factions: Where does the Conservative Party go now?

Co-founder of Whole Nation Conservatives Miranda Jupp is a longstanding North East Conservative activist and former council candidate. Prior to the 2024 General Election she was Chief of Staff to Sir Simon Clarke.

In recent weeks, Kemi Badenoch's efforts to restore the Conservative Party from the doldrums of the 2024 defeat have faced attacks from both sides. On one hand, the defections of Jenrick and Braverman have led to accusations from the likes of Lee Anderson that the Conservatives are “centrist, liberal, one nation wets”, supposedly making Reform the ‘true home’ for the right. On the other, Andy Street and Ruth Davidson's new ‘Prosper' campaign claims that the route to recovery is to appeal to the centre, focus solely on growth and competence and ‘reject populism’.

However, both of these groups are wrong in their assessment. Whilst it undoubtedly took a while for Kemi to find her voice, she and her team are now not only leading an effective opposition, holding this woeful Labour Government to account on issues such as the Chagos ‘deal' and the absurd policing approach to the Macabbi Tel Aviv Aston Villa match, but are also beginning to develop a coherent Conservative offer which can appeal to the common ground.

Whilst ‘Prosper’ make some sensible points about the centrality of aspiration to a successful Conservative offer and the need to be unashamedly pro-growth, they also fundamentally misunderstand the dynamics of building a broad electoral coalition. The idea that elections are won ‘from the centre' with some sort of wishy washy socially liberal platform which seeks to limit state spending is not supported by either history or contemporary polling. The Conservative offers which won the largest number of votes in the post-war period were John Major in 1992 (14.07m votes), Boris Johnson in 2019 (13.96m votes) and Margaret Thatcher in 1987 (13.76m votes) (For context, Blair's New Labour in 1997 polled 13.52m votes) (1). The manifestos offered to the British people in these elections were not ‘centrist’ as those in the metropolitan liberal bubble seek to define it: it is worth noting that Major continued to promote further privatisation and set out clear socially conservative policies on a number of fronts.

Onward's excellent Breaking Blue analysis of the voters the Conservatives lost in 2024 also illustrates the folly of distancing the party from a so called ‘populist’ line on issues such as immigration. When asked to list their top five priorities, Reform, Liberal Democrat, Labour and non-voting defectors who had voted Conservative in 2019 all listed reducing immigration in their top five. Reform, Liberal Democrat and Non voters all also prioritised the need to be tough on crime. Liberal Democrat, Non voting and Labour detectors listed cutting personal taxes. Whatever direction they jumped in 2024, those who abandoned the Conservatives had plenty in common, and notably a robust approach to immigration is essential to regaining these voters (2).

It is notable that critics on the Reform side also misunderstand aspects of the common ground: their extreme positioning on environmental policy is an example of this. It is absolutely true that very few people support hair shirt environmentalism or Milliband's rush to run down the North Sea destroying well paid jobs. The Conservative Party is right to focus on the importance of cheap power for both households and businesses. But caring about the world we live in, and acting as responsible custodian is a fundamentally conservative outlook, and one which is shared by millions of people - as Burke stated, society is “a partnership between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are yet to be born.” Pragmatic environmentalism, taking advantage of technologies (and the employment opportunities they bring to communities like mine on Teesside) to leave our world in a better place isn't ‘socialist’.

Of course on some economic issues, Reform's lack of coherence has led to them embracing socialist economic policies such as scrapping the two child benefit cap.

In terms of occupying the true common ground, Kemi's development of a narrative around a conservative concept of fairness is an excellent starting point, and one which should run through both economic and social policy.

Fairness means that those who work hard and do the right thing can get their just reward. There are also consequences for those who do not play by the rules. This relationship between rights and responsibilities, actions and consequences, should be applied across all areas of policy making. 

The contributory nature of a functional welfare system should be highlighted: if you work hard and pay your taxes, there is a safety net when things go wrong through no fault of your own, but it is reasonable for this support to be conditional. Why shouldn't those who are seeking a job give some of their time to support their community in return for the support the state is providing to them?

If immigrants enter the country by legal routes, support themselves and their families and integrate into society then they can make a huge positive contribution. But those who don't play by the rules, be that via illegal entry, committing crime or expecting taxpayers to support them long term should be deported.

Those who harm others should face tough punishment, including longer prison sentences for serious and repeat offenders. The rights of the victim should take precedent over those of the perpetrator (subject of course to a fair trial by jury!).

However, whilst the policies which can deliver fairness in these areas are pretty uncontentious for those inhabiting the common ground, there are challenges we face as a country which are going to require the Conservative party to tell some more difficult truths. 

Our economic growth post 2008 has been weak and our demographics are challenging. We need to spend more on defence in a dangerous world. Tackling the housing crisis is essential to addressing intergenerational (un)fairness and ensuring younger people can see that the social contract will work for them as it did for their parents and grandparents if they work hard and do the right thing. 

The next stage of the Conservative recovery, and the development of a credible plan for when we return to Government, will require developing the narrative which explains how tackling these issues, not just the easy ones, is necessary to deliver the fair, prosperous, secure society that we all want to live in. 

There are signs that Kemi and her team are better equipped than the alternatives to show our great country the path through these challenges. It is incumbent on all of us who share the Conservative view of fairness to support the development of the right policies, get out on doorsteps and make the case for them and secure the better future which is within reach.

References

(1) General election results from 1918 to 2019: All data now in one place

(2) Breaking Blue | Onward