Yet Another Chance to Learn Our Lesson: A Local Election Debrief

Igraine Gray
14 minutes ago
8 min read

Co-founder of Whole Nation Conservatives Igraine Gray is a Conservative activist and former council candidate, writer, published author and rehabilitated rough sleeper. Prior to the 2024 General Election she was Policy Assistant to Sir Simon Clarke.

Grab a cup of tea. Ensure you are sitting comfortably. This is going to be a long one. What follows is a dose of common sense. If you get to the end of this and don’t see how it’s common sense, read it again until it does.

The 2025 local elections have delivered a sobering verdict on the Conservative Party. Over 650 council seats lost, an electoral map bleeding blue into red, yellow, and teal. Control of long-held authorities, now lost to a miscellany of opposition parties, each preying on a fragment of the once-proud Conservative coalition. Reform UK, now the largest party on Leicestershire County Council, is even encroaching on Labour in County Durham. The Liberal Democrats are resurgent in the South, taking Shropshire Council. Labour, though wounded and not as tested this time, is still dominant in London, and parts of the North and Midlands (1). Add this bloodbath to the preceding one, the results of the 2024 General Election, and there is a clear, consistent message. The missive from the electorate? Get a grip. Be sorry. Be better. Or get out of the way.

Let us not soothe ourselves with fantasies of protest votes or new-to-opposition blues. This was not a blip. It was a reckoning. The Conservative Party is dangerously close to becoming politically irrelevant, a vehicle without passengers, unable to command the respect or trust of the nation it once led with confidence. That our decline is happening under a government that has been perpetually on fire from the day it was elected only deepens the humiliation. We are not merely disliked, we are distrusted. And if we don’t learn the lesson now, after yet another drubbing, we may not get another chance.

Why this collapse?

Because we have failed to tackle the central crises facing Britain, challenges which have festered for decades, and which now define the lived reality of millions. The numbers are stark. Net migration last year exceeded 700,000 (2). These are not abstract figures, they are queues at GP surgeries, children without school places, and housing demand skyrocketing beyond our already woeful supply. Our planning system is paralysed by a strange brew of NIMBYism and bureaucratic inertia. Our young people - aspirational, talented, patriotic - are locked out of home ownership, unable to build the lives they deserve. Meanwhile, regional inequality has become a structural feature of British life. A child in London is almost twice as likely to go to university as one in the North East. And then there is the monster of energy costs. Something else that our sclerotic planning system exacerbates, with energy infrastructure being blocked or the costs jacked up exponentially. Britain also has abundant natural gas in the North Sea, and a burgeoning clean energy sector, yet households are crippled by bills. Bills inflated by planning failures, international markets and a hair-shirt approach to environmentalism that lacks transition planning and actually risks our ability to meet net zero commitments by making them politically unpopular.

None of this is accidental. It is the result of political decisions made over decades. By governments of all stripes, yes, but ours included. We governed for the better part of fifteen years. What voters need to hear before anything else is the one word in politics that is almost illegal to say. Sorry. It doesn’t blunt our ability to do opposition to say it; if anything, it enhances it. If a voter on a doorstep chides for lack of inaction in power, then we stand there and we take it. In a political world where voters feel lied to, honesty is the only thing that will begin to restore faith. The ink may be dry on our past mistakes, but we can show that we have learned from them, and it has to be shown, not told. It will take time to be believed, so we cannot waste even a single minute in making the case.

However, if a member of the incumbent government uses this line whilst simultaneously doing nothing, or something to make it worse, that is when we push back. They have all the freedom and power of government, with choices to make and levers to pull. If they have watched us make these mistakes, identified them at the time as mistakes, and have chosen to blatantly recreate those mistakes, even though we had already shown them to be wrong, then they should have to justify their actions to the British people. They don’t have the excuse of ignorance. If we have one ask of the electorate, it is this: do not let your anger with us, as righteous and valid as it is, stop you scrutinising the government. Or we fear we will be returning to this debate again in five years, trust in politics all but eradicated.

Even with an acknowledgement of guilt, the voters who may be even slightly sympathetic to voting conservative are, and will, leave us not just in numbers but in spirit. Because we have failed to understand who they are, and two groups in particular:

The post-Brexit coalition, the one that delivered 2019’s landslide, was built on clarity and conviction. Take back control. Level up the country. Control our borders. Put Britain first. They are politically awake and will remain so. They had been ignored for decades, so disillusioned with a system that had never improved things for them, to the point where many refused to even partake in voting. That all changed with 2016. They’re prepared to fight, now they know things can change. Defectors to Reform make up a large part of this group, historically low turnout voters, often impoverished for generations, socially conservative and slightly left-leaning economically. As evidenced by the council wards Reform laid claim to in these local elections - vast amounts of County Durham, rural Fenland in Cambridgeshire, and Lincolnshire (3) - and in the vote concentrations for Reform in all elections from 2024 onwards, in areas like Clacton, Hartlepool and Blackpool. All these areas have historically low turnout compared to the national average (4 & 1), were strong Leave voting areas (6) and have council wards in the top three most deprived deciles in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (5). This is also true of younger people, another traditionally vote apathetic group, who have watched in horror as the hopes of decent housing, disposable income and a family life have evaporated. The little of the youth vote we had captured in the preceding five years bled mainly left, with Labour going big on housing rhetoric, even if they haven’t lived up to that yet. We failed them. All of them. And that’s why they’ve left.

This has changed the electoral base, in some ways permanently. It remains a patriotic, values-driven public. They are hawkish on immigration and law and order, proud of our armed forces, instinctively suspicious of overreach from international institutions. But they are not Thatcherite ideologues. They want an economy that works for them, free markets being a means, not an end. They often support higher taxes if it means better local services, but can be persuaded on private investment, where it delivers. For example, both Ben Houchen and Andy Street have demonstrated the power of the public-private partnership. The people believe in fairness, decency, and reciprocity. What they reject is the idea that Britain is a tired, post-imperial irrelevance. They love their country. They want to believe their leaders do, too.

We must earn back their trust. And that means substance, not just slogans. Let’s start with housing. We must be unashamed in saying we need to build - yes, in leafy suburbs, yes, in market towns, and yes, near where people actually want to live and work. We need to tear up the absurd, anti-growth planning system and replace it with one that encourages beauty, density, and ownership. On migration, it is not enough to tinker. We must deliver visible reductions, and fast. That means capping visas, enforcing removals, nursing a deterrent and ending the perverse incentives that keep illegal migrants in legal limbo for years.

On the economy, we must show how free markets and governments solve deep structural problems together. We need an active, yet light-touch state. One that builds infrastructure, backs apprenticeships, and supports high-value industry, but can preserve entrepreneurial freedom and encourage innovation. A Conservative party that talks endlessly of GDP while ignoring the quality of life of its citizens is a party that deserves to lose. We should embrace a modern industrial policy, one rooted in place and pride. We should champion localism, not just rhetorically, but with real fiscal power for mayors and councils. And yes, we should speak unapologetically about family, community, and the moral bonds that hold society together.

This is how we win back voters from all corners. From Labour, we reclaim the working-class patriot, disillusioned with identity politics and craving stability. From the Lib Dems, we recapture the small business owner and commuter class, desperate for competence and cost control. From Reform, we reabsorb the angry, disaffected 2019 conservative, who sees we are the best chance of delivering on meritocracy. From the Greens, even, we can attract those who want environmental stewardship that works with, not against, human flourishing. Our offer must be broad but coherent. A common thread: pro-family, pro-sovereignty, pro-security, and pro-dignity.

But policies alone are not enough. We must tell a story. The best political movements are not built on white papers but on narratives. Thatcher had one. So did Blair. So, in his brief moment of clarity, did Boris. Our story must be one of national renewal: a Britain that is strong, confident, and fair. A country that values contribution, rewards effort, and takes pride in its traditions. That doesn’t mean nationalism or jingoism. It means love of home, respect for order, and belief in our shared future.

To tell that story, we must talk like human beings. Not in focus-grouped platitudes or autocue bromides. But plainly, honestly, and with a bit of moral seriousness. The public hates political games because they insult their intelligence. If we want people to vote Conservative again, we must sound like we believe in something other than keeping our seats. We need a leadership class that is not ashamed to make arguments, real ones, about immigration, identity, responsibility, and nationhood. We need to be clear-eyed about trade-offs, willing to challenge vested interests, and brave enough to say that not all cultures are equal, that not all values are compatible, and that Britain has a right to define itself.

This does not require wild-eyed radicalism. It requires courage. Steely, determined, grounded courage. The kind that says: yes, we will build the homes. Yes, we will stop the boats. Yes, we will invest in skills, industry, and infrastructure. And no, we will not apologise for believing in Britain.

So here we are again. Another electoral bruising. Another chance to learn our lesson. Another moment of clarity amidst the fog of politics. Time to get cracking on those three Ss - Sorry, Substance, Story. If you've made it this far, thank you. And remember what I said at the start. This is common sense. And if it doesn’t feel like it yet, read it again until it does.

The Conservative Party has a choice: revival or oblivion. There is still time. But not much. Let us not waste another inch of ground. The British people are ready to be inspired. It's time we stopped managing decline and started leading again. Let’s prove we deserve to.

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