Healing the Generational Divide Must be a Whole Nation Priority

Co-founder of Whole Nation Conservatives Igraine Gray is a Conservative activist and former council candidate, writer, published author and rehabilitated rough sleeper. Prior to the 2024 General Election she was Policy Assistant to Sir Simon Clarke.

Every generation likes to think they are misunderstood and burdened by the one preceding. And before you protest, think carefully. We were all up for a bit of rebellion in youth, even if only fleetingly. Some put current generational griping down to this cycle, this age-old rivalry, but to do so would be foolish. Unfortunately our generational problems look to be terminal without significant intervention.

Why?

Because for millennials and subsequent generations, the promise that each generation will do better than the last has been broken, and fixing it will cost them time they will never get back. For example, younger millennials, born in the late 1980s, earned on average 8 per cent less at age 30 than members of generation X, born 10 years prior, at the same age (1).

This goes beyond merely earning less but leaks into every part of young people’s lives. 28% of those aged 25-34 who own their own homes, which is down significantly from 51% in 1989 (2), on account of poor housing supply and the resulting skyrocketing of house prices.

The newer generations are picking up the tab of mistakes made, and while they fight for their own stake in society, for a good job, to own their own home, to start a family and be present within their community, resentment has and is building.

“Too much avocado on toast.” “Most pensioners are loaded.” Be honest, you’ve heard copious variations of both these sentiments in recent years and, above all else, it is unbelievably sad. As conservatives we have simply not done enough to correct the generational chasm, and arguably have amplified it, ignoring the troubles of younger people whilst doubling down on pension age priorities with a mere £78 billion projected increase in cost of the state pension since the introduction of the triple lock (2).

We’ve been punished for that failure. The median age of a Conservative voter at the 2024 general election was 63 and only 8% of both 18 to 29 year-olds voted Conservative (3). The Conservatives weren’t even vaguely competitive until the 60 to 69 age bracket. We are not replacing voters who pass away with their younger counterparts. It is coming close to an extinction level event in the future. It is in our interest to pass the torch on and that will mean healing this now fractious divide.

With the Winter Fuel changes, moves on housing and the ‘working people’ rhetoric (if not action), the Labour government has cack-handedly signalled its focus on younger generations.

But at what cost? The Winter Fuel changes are likely to see up to 100,000 more pensioners in relative poverty by the government’s own admission. I do not believe that young people want to see their parents, their grandparents suffer to bridge the gap nor would they openly vote for it.

The British people, above all else, pride fairness. That people should get what they are due. Younger generations want balance restored not retaliation. We recognise the contribution our elders have made, and want to see them looked after in their later years. All we ask is that they fulfil that age-old promise: that each generation will do better than the last. That reciprocity, that meeting each other halfway, that social contract, achieves social and economic justice. It satisfies that British tradition of fairness. It says we will invest in your winter, and you in our spring.

This will mean a change of direction in many areas, but let’s take two interlinked examples: revitalising stagnant economic growth and sustaining a dignified and commensurate retirement offer. To support an ageing population without raising taxes on the young, we need to achieve sustained GDP growth averaging 2.9% across the boom and bust of the business cycle for the next 50 years (2). Therefore to maintain generational fairness we need to a) superpower our economic growth and b) address our ageing population problem. There are a number of ways we can stimulate economic growth, but I am only going to explore one here for the sake of brevity - planning reform.

Reforming our sclerotic planning system to incentivise building new homes, energy infrastructure, business and industry - within a reasonable timeframe. Firstly, delivering on the previous aspiration for house building, a 300,000-a-year target, alone would create: £14.2bn in economic activity, 260k jobs created, £1.1bn in tax revenue and £384m investment in infrastructure (4). Considering the over 4 million shortfall of homes in this country (5), we will need to go far beyond that aspiration to catch up. This is without considering the ripple effect of housebuilding. So it can certainly help push us up to that magic number of 2.9% trend growth, and creating energy abundance will help keep fuel costs manageable for all, but especially pensioners reliant on the state pension and negate the need for a Winter Fuel payment at all.

Additionally, lack of access to stable housing and home ownership is a significant barrier for those wishing to start a family. Women in England and Wales had an average of 1.44 children between 2022 and 2023, the lowest rate on record (6) and by 2072 the population is projected to be at 1.9 number of workers per pensioner, down from 3.3 today (2). The taxpayer base is shrinking as the pension liability is growing. House building is just one of the things we need to do to reverse this trend and restore the balance between the two.

So much of today’s debate is superficial: boomers vs millennials. Like mutually exclusive groups that can never be reconciled. But that isn’t true. Not only can they, but they must be. Conservatives need to offer the policies that do that, in a way that feeds the British need for fairness and community. That’s a winner.

References

1. An-intergenerational-audit-for-the-UK-2023.pdf (resolutionfoundation.org), page 5

2. CPS_JUSTICE_FOR_THE_YOUNG.pdf, page 4

3. How Britain voted in the 2024 general election | YouGov

4. Increase in house building delivers huge boost to UK economy (hbf.co.uk)

5. The housebuilding crisis: The UK’s 4 million missing homes | Centre for Cities

6. Fertility rate in England and Wales drops to new low - BBC News