.png)
The Conservative Party Leadership Race: Is a Jenrick vs Badenoch final abandoning the 2019 coalition?
- Miranda Jupp
- Oct 17, 2024
- 5 min read
Co-founder of Whole Nation Conservatives Miranda Jupp is a longstanding North East Conservative activist and former council candidate. Prior to the 2024 General Election she was Chief of Staff to Sir Simon Clarke.
There has been much discussion over the past week of how we arrived at a position where both candidates in the final round of the ongoing leadership election are perceived as being on the right of the party. The leadership of the Tory Reform Group have declared they are unable to endorse either candidate. Former Conservative MPs on the left of the party have lashed out on X. Some commentators have suggested that the result means the party has abandoned the type of conservatism which glued together the successful 2019 coalition and that the result reduces the prospects of Conservative recovery.
However, having spent hundreds of hours each on ‘red wall’ doorsteps over recent years, the Whole Nation team weren’t convinced at this characterisation, so I have decided to dig into the evidence for this week’s blog. Does what Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are offering alienate the 2019 Conservative voters who we lost in 2024? Or are ideas being discussed that might pull the alliance that delivered an 80 seat majority back together?
So, why did so many voters turn away from us in 2024? Boris’ 2019 majority was built on the support of nearly 14 million voters. This base of support fell to fewer than 7 million votes on 4th July. We lost support to Reform, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and people simply staying at home (in 33 seats, mobilising 2019 Conservative voters who stayed at home would have been enough to retain the seat without winning back any of those who voted for another party (1).
When all voters were asked by More in Common what the Conservatives’ biggest mistakes were since 2019 (2), the most commonly selected response was “The mismanaged the NHS and oversaw higher waiting lists (selected by 54% of respondents). Whilst many of the responses focused on trust issues (most notably ‘Partygate’, selected by 49%, the next most cited policy issues were “They failed to control immigration” (47%) and “They failed to ‘level up’ poorer parts of the country” (39%).
Onward’s excellent ‘Breaking Blue’ report found 2019 Conservative voters who defected from the party in 2024 saw similar issues as their biggest barrier to voting Conservative (3) , with “Immigration too high” the most common answer (40%) and “Public Services Worse” the third most frequent (25%). This report also highlights that immigration was a common priority of all 2019 Conservatives who did not vote Conservative in July, regardless of where their vote went: “Reducing immigration” was in the top 3 priorities of Labour and stay at home defectors and the most commonly selected priority for Reform AND Liberal Democrat defectors. (The report, linked below, also has some additional breakdowns by voter segment which are worth a read for those interested in this).
In line with the More in Common findings, the performance of the NHS was an issue which had huge salience with 2019 Conservatives. When asked which area of public spending they would most support increasing, the NHS was the most popular option by a margin, with 33% of respondents selecting this priority (compared to 11% for the Armed Forces in 2nd place). The NHS was the top spending priority amongst 2024 Conservative voters and defectors to Labour, Reform, the Liberal Democrats and non-voting (4). It is however notable that there is not just widespread support for NHS funding, but also for some reform: when presented with a list of potential changes to the NHS, Reform, Liberal Democrat and non-voting defectors plus 2024 Conservatives were all most likely to select “Reducing the number of managers in the NHS” (ahead of training more doctors and nurses) in their top 3 priorities. This was the second most selected option for Labour defectors and “Being able to sack poorly performing hospital managers” was in the top 3 for all voter groups.
On all available evidence, a strong policy on immigration is almost certainly a prerequisite for rebuilding the 2019 coalition. Whilst the robust rhetoric on immigration from both remaining leadership candidates may not always be comfortable for some of those on the left of the Conservative Party, Robert Jenrick’s pledge to “Stop Illegal Migration, End Mass Migration” (5) chimes with the sentiment of many of those voters who our party needs to win back in order to rebuild. Kemi Badenoch has been less specific given her more conceptual approach to the campaign, though her emphasis on the importance of immigrants integrating with British society suggests an appreciation of the depth of concern millions of Brits feel regarding this issue. She has been clear that "a proper immigration system should start off with three principles: Numbers matter. Culture matters even more. Leadership starts from the top." (6)
Jenrick has also been crystal clear on the importance of ensuring that the NHS meets the needs of patients, with reform focused on improving outputs and increased management accountability repeatedly featuring as a central plank of his policy offer. Badenoch’s extensive emphasis on systems reform of government and public services is likely to encompass the NHS priorities that voters care about so much, but this is yet to be fleshed out.
On Levelling Up, flagged as a delivery failure by a significant number of voters involved with More in Common’s research, Jenrick also recognises that our party can only succeed as a nationwide movement, regularly talking about the needs of the small towns so many people call home and stating that “we should be doubling down on Levelling Up, not ditching it like Labour”. (7)
In conclusion, the “right wing” nature of the final two definitely doesn’t signal that the party has abandoned the 2019 coalition. Rob Jenrick’s pitch addresses the most common reasons cited by 2019 Conservatives for abandoning the party in 2024 head on. Kemi Badenoch’s approach has the potential to speak to these issues, though the details of her offer are currently less clear.
What is clear is that the patterns of 2024 results (link to previous piece) suggest it would be folly to abandon the post Brexit realignment, and whichever candidate is victorious will need to regain the trust of 2017 and 2019 gains like Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, Stoke on Trent South, Rother Valley and Hyndburn, on the the road back to government.
References
(1) More in Common Change Pending - The Path to the 2024 General Election and Beyond https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/e3in12zd/change-pending.pdf p.33
(2) Change Pending Figure 53 p.77
(3) Onward Breaking Blue: How the Conservatives lost the 2024 Election and the Route Back p.104-113 https://www.ukonward.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Onward-Breaking-Blue-General-Election-2024-4.pdf
(4) Breaking Blue p.122
Comments