The Electoral Necessity of a Whole Nation Offer

Co-founder of Whole Nation Conservatives Miranda Jupp is a longstanding North East Conservative activist and former council candidate. Prior to the 2024 General Election she was Chief of Staff to Sir Simon Clarke.

We must not underestimate the size of the mountain our party has to climb in order to return to Government. Securing 205 seat gains would result in a majority of just 2! Multiple seats which fell in the 2024 General Election had previously been part of every post war parliamentary Conservative Party, whether in government or opposition.

However, we should not despair: the 2019-2024 parliament showed just how long 5 years is in politics. Labour secured an enormous parliamentary majority, but their voter base was incredibly narrow by historic standards, with 33.7% vote share and just 9.7 million votes (compared to Boris Johnson’s 2019 mandate of nearly 14 million votes and a 43.6% vote share). Both the relatively narrow based nature of Starmer’s mandate and the rocky first few months of the new Government’s tenure provide reasons to be optimistic about electoral recovery IF our offer to the electorate can appeal to a coalition which is comparably broad to that which saw us secure a working majority for the first time in a generation in 2019.

Whoever becomes leader later this autumn, they must keep in mind the variety of voters that we need to regain the trust of in order to return to government. 

A list of target seats ordered by swing required to gain them is a good starting point in terms of understanding the geography involved. The table below shows the regional distribution of seats in the Top 50, Top 100 and Top 200 ‘targets’ by swing required.

Region	Top 50	Top 100	Top 200
London	3	9	12
South West	8	13	31
South East	11	22	41
East of England	9	16	25
East Midlands	4	8	19
West Midlands	4	11	22
North East	1	4	6
North West	3	5	17
Yorkshire & Humber	1	3	9
Scotland	2	4	7
Wales	4	5	11

Whilst regaining lost ground in traditional strongholds like the South East and East of England is essential, there are also significant numbers of targets in the North and Midlands. This picture becomes even more interesting when you categorise these seats by incumbent party, as shown below.

Region	Labour	Liberal	Reform	Green	SNP	Plaid Cymru
East Mids (Top 50)	4	0	0	0	0	0
East Mids (Top 100)	7	0	1	0	0	0
East Mids (Top 200)	18	0	1	0	0	0
East (Top 50)	8	1	0	0	0	0
East (Top 100)	13	3	0	0	0	0
East (Top 200)	18	4	2	1	0	0
London (Top 50)	3	0	0	0	0	0
London (Top 100)	8	1	0	0	0	0
London (Top 200)	11	1	0	0	0	0
North East (Top 50)	1	0	0	0	0	0
North East (Top 100)	4	0	0	0	0	0
North East (Top 200)	6	0	0	0	0	0
North West (Top 50)	3	0	0	0	0	0
North West (Top 100)	5	0	0	0	0	0
North West (Top 200)	17	0	0	0	0	0
Scotland (Top 50)	0	0	0	0	2	0
Scotland (Top 100)	0	0	0	0	4	0
Scotland (Top 200)	1	0	0	0	6	0
South East (Top 50)	8	3	0	0	0	0
South East (Top 100)	15	7	0	0	0	0
South East (Top 200)	25	16	0	0	0	0
South West (Top 50)	5	3	0	0	0	0
South West (Top 100)	8	5	0	0	0	0
South West (Top 200)	15	16	0	0	0	0
Wales (Top 50)	2	1	0	0	0	1
Wales (Top 100)	3	1	0	0	0	1
Wales (Top 200)	8	1	0	0	0	2
West Mids (Top 50)	4	0	0	0	0	0
West Mids (Top 100)	11	0	0	0	0	0
West Mids (Top 200)	20	1	0	1	0	0
Yorks & Humber (Top 50)	1	0	0	0	0	0
Yorks & Humber (Top 100)	3	0	0	0	0	0
Yorks & Humber (Top 200)	8	1	0	0	0	0

At the next General Election, it is almost certainly the case that those MPs sat on the Labour benches (and hence associated with some of the Government’s less popular decisions) will be more vulnerable than Liberal Democrat or Green MPs sat on the opposition benches. In the South West, South East, and to a lesser extent the East of England, seats held by minor parties make up a considerable proportion of the top 200 targets: in the South West more than half of the seats in closest reach! In contrast, almost all targets in the North and Midlands are Labour held. The cumulative effect of this is that the number of Labour held targets in the North, Midlands and Yorkshire exceeds the number in the South East, South West and East of England.

The scale of gains required notwithstanding, this illustrates that a strategy solely focused on so-called ‘blue wall’ areas will likely only deliver limited recovery. Whilst the party’s offer to the country does obviously need to win back support in our traditional heartlands, an offer which does not speak to parts of the country which have less of a history of voting Conservative will not be sufficient to return to Government.

An analysis of when these target seats were gained in the past also reveals some interesting patterns. In the midst of an unraveling campaign, the 2017 General Election saw just 5 English Conservative gains. Whilst Walsall North disappeared in the boundary review, the other 4 seats (which were not part of the Conservative majority in 2015) are all within the top 100 targets. 2 (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland and Stoke on Trent South) are within the top 20, requiring a swing of less than 1% to turn back blue. First time 2019 gains also feature in the top 100, including Rother Valley and Hyndburn in the top 50.

In contrast Dominic Raab’s former seat, Esher and Walton, does not appear on the target list until 250, requiring a swing of over 11%. Chichester, previously represented by Gillian Keegan, most recent in a line of uninterrupted Conservative MPs stretching back to 1924 is target number 258, having fallen to the Liberals by a margin of more than 12,000 votes.

The Conservative electoral coalition has always evolved over time and it is important not to fall into the comfortable fiction of appealing to a previous coalition when events have moved on. The foundations of our 2019 coalition were very different to that of 2010. Whilst things will invariably look different again come 2029, it seems unlikely that the post-Brexit realignment will be totally unwound. After all, in what has been a tremendously challenging year for our party, Ben Houchen retained the ‘red wall’ Tees Valley mayoralty in May amidst a bloodbath across the country. 

The party’s rebuild needs to pay close attention to where winning back the trust of voters will lead to regaining seats: that means telling a story about how Conservatism offers the best answers to improving people’s lives in those communities, which are spread across all regions of the country. 

The Whole Nation Conservatives team look forward to exploring different elements of how this narrative can be developed in a manner which resonates with voters across the country in the coming weeks and months. We would also welcome contributions from anyone who has thoughts on how (and why) particular areas of policy should play a part: please get in touch if you have an idea to share!